TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA)
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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Location: 6.4°S 129.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 071730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3S 129.5E TO 8.3S 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 129.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3S 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 129.2E, 378 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING, WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A 071326Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS WINDS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN
AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081730Z.
//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
Location: 6.4°S 129.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 071730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3S 129.5E TO 8.3S 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 129.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3S 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 129.2E, 378 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING, WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A 071326Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS WINDS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN
AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081730Z.
//
NNNN
1730UTC
1211UTC
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 93S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 93S
