22/13UTC. INVEST 95S IS NOW ASSESSED AS HAVING MEDIUM CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE SYSTEM.
2021 MAR 22 1455UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #95S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 22, 2021:
Location: 12.8°S 92.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
LOCATED AT 22/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 460KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
INVEST 95S. 22/1420UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND A DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST.
INVEST 95S. 22/1044UTC.MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SMALL, COMMA-SHAPED REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SHORT TAIL EXTENDING NORTH. A 220301Z METOP-B PERIPHERAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE VERY ELONGATED, VERY ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH ELEVATED (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WIND CONTAINED TO THE SOUTH.
INVEST 95S. 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING; HOWEVER, THE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL STANDS AS THE OUTLIER, DEPICTING MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE REST, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
