05/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND 18S.
2021 FEB 05 11UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 1
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 05, 2021:
Location: 12.6°S 81.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
INTENSIFYING
19S() LOCATED AT 05/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1140 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #19S #FARAJI #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 1
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 05, 2021:
Location: 12.6°S 81.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
INTENSIFYING
19S() LOCATED AT 05/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1140 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
19S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 05/09UTC.THROUGH 48H,19S WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI- STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER 96H, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. 19S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY STARTING BY 12H DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM REACHING 95 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 48H AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 72H WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RAPID SPIN-UP BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS TRACK SCENARIO WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
05/1030UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
05/0811UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CORE (APPROXIMATELY 100KM DIAMETER) SURROUNDING A DEVELOPING, RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
