22S(MARIAN). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 FEB 26 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 2
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2021:
Location: 14.8°S 97.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 26/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 280KM SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND/AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 28 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #22S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 2
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2021:
Location: 14.8°S 97.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 26/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 280KM SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND/AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 28 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 26/15UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. TC 22S WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 48H, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, AND AFTER 96H, WILL RE-ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 120H.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP 48H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST; AFTERWARD, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRAJECTORIES AND ALONG- TRACK SPEEDS AS THE VORTEX NAVIGATES THE TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
22S(MARIAN). 26/0850UTC.
22S(MARIAN). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 11.6 m/s (22.6 kts) Direction : 101.3 deg. THE 24H TENDENCY IS SLOWLY IMPROVING THOUGH.
