SHEM: Super Cyclone 19S(FARAJI) reaches Category 5 , Invest 92P consolidates, 08/21utc updates

19S(FARAJI). 08/21UTC. 9H LOOP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED 37 KM DIAMETER EYE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE.

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 08/21UTC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE SAT IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 081529Z ASCAT-A IMAGE WITH A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS/CATEGORY 5 IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.2 (146 KTS), AND 081257Z SAR DATA REVEALING 135-141KNOTS WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECENT ASCAT AND SAR DATA. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. DIFFERING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 19S SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME, THE EYE BEGAN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY DEFORMED, INDICATING A POTENTIAL DECLINE WITHIN THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TC 19S WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND DRIVE TC 19S SOUTHWARD THROUGH 48H, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96H, AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 36H, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 45 KNOTS BY 120H.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36H WITH A SPREAD OF 95 KM. AFTERWARDS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PLACES ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TRACK BIAS INDUCED BY THE NAVGEM OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

19S(FARAJI). 08/2238UTC. DMSP.

19S(FARAJI). 08/1958UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT AND INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION.

19S(FARAJI). 08/1958UTC. NPP.

19S(FARAJI). 08/1909UTC. NOAA-20.

INVEST 92P.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

08/18UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). INVEST 92P IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND 92P.