Kyarr(04A) still a Super Cyclone, models in better agreement

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NORTH INDIAN

Super TC Kyarr(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 28, 2019:
Location: 18.2°N 65.5°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 65.2E.
28OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 272317Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A 272054Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. TC 04A
IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04A IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 04A WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 48, A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 04A TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC
04A TO MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VARYING
TRACK DISCREPANCIES. BY TAU 24, SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, SLOW TRACK SPEED INDUCING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ERODE TC 04A, REDUCING
INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY AS PAST TAU 72 WITH ALL DYNAMIC MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM, NOW FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
GUIDED BY THE SECOND STR. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK PAST TAU 48 BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 48
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
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