Super Cyclone 04A
Météo974
Location: 17.3°N 67.4°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 67.1E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS A 15 NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5/7.0 (127-140 KTS) AND A 270228Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 126 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM 28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS VERY SUPPORTIVE.
TC 04A IS IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARILY INFLUENCE
IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS A SECOND
STR TO THE NORTHWEST THAT SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AROUND TAU 72, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU
48, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN (GALWEM, ECMWF, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN) AND OTHERS FOLLOWING A POLEWARD RECURVE SCENARIO (GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM). BASED ON THIS BIFURCATION, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 IS GOOD BUT BECOMES LOW AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PRIOR TO THE
BIFURCATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AFTERWARD, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE AND THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN BUT THE AMOUNT OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON WHICH TRACK TC 04A FOLLOWS. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVED, PRIMARILY BECAUSE VWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVES. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO
ABOUT 85 KTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
M974World
NORTH INDIANLocation: 17.3°N 67.4°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 67.1E.
27OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS A 15 NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5/7.0 (127-140 KTS) AND A 270228Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 126 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM 28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS VERY SUPPORTIVE.
TC 04A IS IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARILY INFLUENCE
IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS A SECOND
STR TO THE NORTHWEST THAT SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AROUND TAU 72, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU
48, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN (GALWEM, ECMWF, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN) AND OTHERS FOLLOWING A POLEWARD RECURVE SCENARIO (GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM). BASED ON THIS BIFURCATION, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 IS GOOD BUT BECOMES LOW AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PRIOR TO THE
BIFURCATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AFTERWARD, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE AND THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN BUT THE AMOUNT OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON WHICH TRACK TC 04A FOLLOWS. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVED, PRIMARILY BECAUSE VWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IF THE
SYSTEM RECURVES. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO
ABOUT 85 KTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY: BODERLINE CATEGORY 4/5 WITHIN THE NEXT 36H
27/08UTC. INSAT3D. IMD
27/0453UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
HWRF: 125KTS AT +0H
