Kalmaegi now almost a typhoon and bearing down on Northeast Luzon

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 18, 2019:
Location: 17.5°N 123.4°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS THE RAIN
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS
OBSCURED BY A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD
TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
DEFINED LLC IN THE 172251Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, INCLUDING A T2.5/35KTS FROM RJTD,
T3.5/55KTS FROM RCTP, T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW, AND 50KTS FROM SATCON.
ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-20KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL/DRY NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KALMAEGI WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON STRAIT UP
TO TAU 24 UNDER THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AFTERWARD, ANOTHER
STR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND DRIVE
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON NEAR APARRI SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED
INTERIOR BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR VIGAN JUST
AFTER TAU 36. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK OF 65KTS AT TAUS 12 TO 24 BEFORE LANDFALL.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND A MORE VIGOROUS
COLD/DRY NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL RESULT IN A
RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING, LEADING TO FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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