Invest 98W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//Invest 97W up-graded//Invest 99W//Remnants of TC 03S(BALITA)// 1106utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 98W..

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 245 NM RADIUS OF 16.0N 124.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-ROUNDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TUCKED BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FOUR HOURS. A 110112Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NE SURGE EVENT, SURGING DOWN FROM THE LUZON STRAIGHT, AND 20-25KTS WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LUZON BEGINNING TO WRAP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM SSTS (30-31C). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT TAU 36, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT TAU 36, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF. AN 110020Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS HALF THE STORY OF 97W WITH WIND FIELDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE RANGING FROM 20-30KTS (UNDER A CONVECTIVE BAND) WITH LESSER FIELDS OF 10-15 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS, WARM 30C SSTS, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 97W AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH IS INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.