Invest 94W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. TC Rita(01P): update

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 25, 2019:
Location: 8.8°N 152.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 250900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 156.7E TO 12.5N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
154.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LITTLE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 250323Z
AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGELY DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, WITH THE LLC
TIGHTENING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION FULLY DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LOCATION IN PARA 2.//
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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

TC RITA ( 01P)
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 25, 2019:
Location: 12.6°S 170.3°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 170.3E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO A
MAJOR SYSTEM OUTAGE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED
PRIMARILY BY A 250949Z ASCAT-C IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED BELOW A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) BASED ON THE WEAKENED
STRUCTURE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 36, TC 01P SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
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