Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) on a weakening trend, forecast landfall near Coen in 36 hours

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Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-forecast-to-make-landfall-near-Coen-as-a-45knots-cyclone-shortly-after-36-hours_a826.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-is-forecast-to-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-near-Coen-in-48hours_a824.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 12:00 UTC May 13, 2019:
Location: 15.1°S 151.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h )
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb

REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAINBAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
AMBIGUITIES FROM A 131119Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE CLEAR LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED
ON THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 35 KT WINDS, AND A SMALLER
AREA OF 40 AND 45 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER, ALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 27P WILL TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. BY TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL DECREASE AS FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IMPINGES ON THE
SYSTEM, BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. ADDITIONALLY, TC 27P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA AROUND TAU 36, LEADING TO
FURTHER WEAKENING. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DESPITE WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. HOWEVER,
THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE LATER FORECAST SKIRTS THE COAST OF NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA OR TRACKS BACK OVER WATER MAY ALTER THE DISSIPATION
TIMELINE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
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