Active Pacific: 10W(CEMPAKA) likely to intensify to Typhoon level within 12hours, 09W(IN-FA) forecast to peak at Cat 2 Typhoon by 72hours// 06E(FELICIA) still a Cat 2 Hurricane, 07E(GUILLERMO) has peaked, 19/09utc updates

JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W AND 10W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.

TS 09W(IN-FA). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, TS 09W SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TS 09W SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH 72H TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS/CAT 2. AFTER 72H, TS 09W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF TAIWAN AND APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA.

TS 09W(IN-FA).

TS 09W(IN-FA).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 190000UTC 500MB ANALYSIS CHART INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS BUILT TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS PREDICTED BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS. SPECIFICALLY, THE NAZE SOUNDING (47909) NOW SHOWS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 400MB. AS A CONSEQUENCE, TS 09W HAS SLOWED AND TURNED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 0600UTC AND WESTWARD FROM 0600-0800UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES RANGING FROM T3.0-3.5. A 190404UTC AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT TO THE EAST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES.

TS 09W(IN-FA).MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72H WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE; AT 48H THERE IS A 85KM SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND AT 72H THERE IS A 220KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER 72H, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TS 10W(CEMPAKA). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36H UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER 36H, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITHIN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 10W WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. IN GENERAL, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TS 10W SHOULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 12H JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. TS 10W WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY NEAR 120H AFTER REEMERGING BACK OVER WATER.

TS 10W(CEMPAKA).

TS 10W(CEMPAKA). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190542UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS (190810Z ADT ESTIMATE NOW 49 KNOTS WITH WEAK EYE DEVELOPING IN VISIBLE IMAGERY). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES.

10W(CEMPAKA).MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONSIDERING THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PROLONGED TRACK OVER THE VERY WARM WATER.

19/08UTC.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 06E(FELICIA). WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 19/10UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 85KNOTS/CAT 2. FORECAST TO WEAKEN MARKEDLY NEXT 72HOURS DOWN TO BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H.

06E(FELICIA). GUIDANCE.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 07E(GUILLERMO). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 19/10UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST NEXT 72H.

07E(GUILLERMO). GUIDANCE.

19/00UTC.

19/00UTC.