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27S(ODETTE) being absorbed in 26S(SEROJA). 26S will be approaching Geraldton(WA) after 24hours. Invest 92P: 30knot system, 10/03utc update


10/0230UTC. 3H ANIMATION. SMALL 27S(ODETTE) IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S(SEROJA) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 12H. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


10/0230UTC. 3H ANIMATION. SMALL 27S(ODETTE) IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S(SEROJA) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 12H. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
10/0230UTC. 3H ANIMATION. SMALL 27S(ODETTE) IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S(SEROJA) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 12H. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 APR 10 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #26S #SEROJA  #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 23
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 20.8°S 107.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
INTENSIFYING
26S(SEROJA) LOCATED AT 10/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 670 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------
TC 27S #ODETTE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 21
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 18.9°S 112.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WEAKENING
27S(ODETTE) LOCATED AT 10/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 12.8°S 99.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 92P  #SOUTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 19.5°S 163.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

26S(SEROJA). WARNING 23 ISSSUED AT 10/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (28C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BY 12H AND ACCELERATE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT 24H WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WESTERLIES. AFTER 24H, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY 48H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY 36H AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 36H AS VWS INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS.
26S(SEROJA). WARNING 23 ISSSUED AT 10/03UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (28C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BY 12H AND ACCELERATE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT 24H WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WESTERLIES. AFTER 24H, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY 48H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY 36H AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 36H AS VWS INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS.

26S(SEROJA).
26S(SEROJA).

26S(SEROJA). 10/0015UTC. ON THE LEFT IS THE CIRCULATION OF 26S. ON THE RIGHT IS THE SMALL RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF 27S(ODETTE).
26S(SEROJA). 10/0015UTC. ON THE LEFT IS THE CIRCULATION OF 26S. ON THE RIGHT IS THE SMALL RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF 27S(ODETTE).

26S(SEROJA). 10/0230UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092124Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
26S(SEROJA). 10/0230UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092124Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.

27S(ODETTE). WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO TC 26S WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 12H.
27S(ODETTE). WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO TC 26S WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 12H.

27S(ODETTE).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK(COMPLEX SCENARIO) AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
27S(ODETTE).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK(COMPLEX SCENARIO) AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INVEST 91S. INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
INVEST 91S. INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING.
INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING.

INVEST 92P. 09/23UTC.
INVEST 92P. 09/23UTC.

10/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA) AND TC 27S(ODETTE). INVEST 92P WAS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 09/1930UTC(MODERATE CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24H). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
10/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA) AND TC 27S(ODETTE). INVEST 92P WAS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 09/1930UTC(MODERATE CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24H). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, April 10th 2021 à 07:55
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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