26W(NALGAE)to track South of Manila, then intensifying over the SCS//Invest 94W: TCFA//Invest 93S//Invest 95L//2903utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 26W(NALGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 26W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MANILA AND HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO FLARE UP AND OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTI-AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AS WELL AS THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE A COMBINATION OF THE PGTW AND KNES INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 26W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF LUZON JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, AND REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 12. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR WILL ERODE AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO TURN AND TRACK NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 96, BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE BY TAU 120. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE STRENGTHENING UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE SCS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH WARM SSTS, WHICH WILL ENABLE A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 75 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER. HOWEVER, COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72 TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LESS OF A BIFURCATION WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A GENERAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 120. THE AVNI (GFS) TRACKER SPECIFICALLY NOW SHOWS A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO A RECURVE SCENARIO. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH OF GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A WIDE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, HOWEVER, BOTH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN'S GENERALLY AGREE ON A SIMILAR OVERALL TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, WITH AHNI (GFS), AND DECAY SHIPS (NAVGEM AND GFS) REPRESENTING THE HIGH END OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHILE CTCI, COTI REPRESENTS THE LOW END OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE AVHI (GFS) SOLUTION AND ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 139.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 139.4E APPROXIMATELY 88 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ALSO TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH CONTINUED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.