26W(NALGAE)to peak within 48H over the SCS//Invest 94W: TCFA again//Invest 93S//Invest 95L to consolidate next 5 days//3009utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 26W(NALGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 26W HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE CENTER NOW LIES FIRMLY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WEST OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER BROAD, DISORGANIZED, WITH FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300516Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER 300208Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 40-45 KNOT WIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RJTD, KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM 26W HAS EMERGED INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE STILL SUGGEST THE LACK OF PROGRESS TOWARD A VERTICALLY STACKED, SYMMETRICAL CORE, THEREFORE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. BY TAU 12, TS 26W WILL BEGIN TO TURN AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR WILL ERODE AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12, TS 26W WILL HOLD STEADY ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER TRACK SPEED IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER SLOW AS THE STEERING GRADIENTS ARE NOT STRONG. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECONSOLIDATE, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALOFT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BY TAU 36. THESE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTED BY COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. FURTHERMORE, THE STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES, AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD, ALONG WITH LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHICH WILL THEN STEER THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS BEING NAVGEM, COMAPS-TC (NAVGEM) ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, AND GALWEM ON THE EASTERN EDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACKERS ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED IN AN ENVELOPE WHICH GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO 110NM AT TAU 72. THEREAFTER, AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND HWRF ON THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH A PEAK OF 70-75 KNOTS, WHILE CTCI, COTI REPRESENT THE LOW END OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COVERED BY DENSE CONVECTION. A 291849 SSMIS 91GHZ PASS CONFIRMED THE TIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED LLCC TO THE SE OF YAP, CENTERED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 40-50 KNOTS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, 94W IS COCOONED WITHIN A FAVORABLE BUBBLE OF LOW (5-10KT) VWS, NESTLED UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A GOOD FUEL SOURCE OF 30C SST AND 125KJ OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE 850MB VORTICITY CHART ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG, SYMMETRICAL VORTICITY SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH 94W. GLOBAL MODELS JUMPED BACK ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING A SLOW AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WOBBLY TRACK WEST- NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS JUMPED BACK ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING A SLOW AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WOBBLY TRACK WEST- NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, overnight satellite wind data suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of this system. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating the system this morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.