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26S(SEROJA): US/CAT 1(65knots) is rapidly approaching Geraldton area,28P short-lived, Invests 94W, 91S and 93S under watch, 11/03utc update


11/02UTC. 3H LOOP. TC 26S(SEROJA) HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


11/02UTC. 3H LOOP. TC 26S(SEROJA) HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
11/02UTC. 3H LOOP. TC 26S(SEROJA) HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 APR 11 0230UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST 94W  #WESTERNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 4.4°N 144.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  LOW
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TC #26S #SEROJA  #SOUTHINDIAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 27
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 24.2°S 110.5°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
US CATEGORY: 1
INTENSIFYING
26S(SEROJA) LOCATED AT 11/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 425 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #28P  #SOUTHPACIFIC
WARNING 2
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 24.6°S 167.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
28P LOCATED AT 11/00UTC APPROXIMATELY
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 13.8°S 103.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 7.1°S 79.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

26S(SEROJA). WARNING 27 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY 24H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 12H AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS) AND TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
26S(SEROJA). WARNING 27 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY 24H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 12H AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS) AND TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.

26S(SEROJA). GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
26S(SEROJA). GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

26S(SEROJA). 11/0220UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE. A 102111Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT.
26S(SEROJA). 11/0220UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE. A 102111Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT.


28P. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUICKLY DEGRADING AND SHEARING THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY 18H, WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN 24H.
28P. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUICKLY DEGRADING AND SHEARING THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY 18H, WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN 24H.

28P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
28P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 94W. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS.
INVEST 94W. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS.

INVEST 91S. INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT.
INVEST 91S. INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT.

INVEST 93S.
INVEST 93S.

 

11/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA) AND TC 28P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 26S,28P AND 91S.
11/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA) AND TC 28P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 26S,28P AND 91S.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, April 11th 2021 à 07:15
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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