WARNING 1/JTWC
Location: 13.1°S 146.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 146.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH. OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WITH THE TRACK MIRRORING
CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 70 KTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK JUST AFTER TAU 36. WHILE OVER
CAPE YORK, TC 20P WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BUT, AROUND TAU 72, IT
WILL EMERGE OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT
THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AGAIN, THIS
TIME TO 115 KTS, IF NOT HIGHER, BY TAU 120 WHILE TURNING POLEWARD.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS SMALL
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO
CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170130).//
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WARNING 1/JTWC
21UTC
2015UTC
18UTC
