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17P(LUCAS): New Caledonia: 160km/h gust and more than 400mm in 24h whereas 18S is still over-land


03/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S(NONAME). WARNING 13/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 03/03UTC ON 17P(LUCAS). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND 17P WHEREAS THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 15P(ANA) AT 02/18UTC.


03/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S. WARNING 13/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 03/03UTC ON 17P(LUCAS). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND 17P WHEREAS THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 15P(ANA) AT 02/18UTC.
03/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S. WARNING 13/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 03/03UTC ON 17P(LUCAS). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND 17P WHEREAS THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 15P(ANA) AT 02/18UTC.
2021 FEB 03 1015UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #17P #LUCAS  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 13/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 03, 2021:
Location: 22.7°S 166.8°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
17P(LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 KM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 16 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #18S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 12
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 03, 2021:
Location: 23.9°S 114.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 KM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 02 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

18S. WARNING 12.18S IS TRACKING OVER-LAND THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. IN THE NEAR TERM, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INITIALLY WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. THESE WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW VWS AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KTS BY 36H. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST AFTER 48H WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY 72H.
18S. WARNING 12.18S IS TRACKING OVER-LAND THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. IN THE NEAR TERM, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INITIALLY WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. THESE WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW VWS AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KTS BY 36H. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST AFTER 48H WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY 72H.

 

18S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 210 KM AT 72H AND LENDS OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS.
18S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 210 KM AT 72H AND LENDS OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS.

03/0504UTC. MIRCROWAVE DEPICTED THE CLEAR-CUT CENTER AND THE WELL DEFINED RAIN BANDS EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH.
03/0504UTC. MIRCROWAVE DEPICTED THE CLEAR-CUT CENTER AND THE WELL DEFINED RAIN BANDS EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH.


17P(LUCAS). WARNING 13/FINAL ISSUED AT 03/03UTC. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1.
17P(LUCAS). WARNING 13/FINAL ISSUED AT 03/03UTC. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1.
JMV FILE
1721012700 150S1415E  20
1721012706 149S1418E  20
1721012712 148S1421E  20
1721012718 148S1423E  20
1721012800 147S1425E  20
1721012806 147S1427E  20
1721012812 147S1429E  20
1721012818 145S1432E  20
1721012900 142S1439E  20
1721012906 137S1449E  20
1721012912 133S1463E  20
1721012918 132S1475E  25
1721013000 133S1482E  25
1721013006 135S1492E  30
1721013012 139S1503E  30
1721013018 139S1515E  30
1721013100 139S1523E  40
1721013106 136S1538E  50
1721013112 132S1552E  55
1721013118 137S1572E  55
1721020100 141S1586E  55
1721020106 148S1609E  60
1721020112 157S1626E  65
1721020118 166S1640E  60
1721020200 171S1650E  45
1721020206 184S1661E  50
1721020212 196S1668E  50
1721020218 206S1673E  50
1721020300 219S1671E  40
1721020306 227S 1668E 40
NNNN
 

17P(LUCAS). 02/2226UTC. ASCAT. WHILE TRACKING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA 17P(LUCAS) DELIVERED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MORE THAN 400MM IN 24H. LOCALISED SEVERE FLOODING IS REPORTED. NEW CALEDONIA REPORTS TOP GUSTS AS HIGH AS 160KM/H.
17P(LUCAS). 02/2226UTC. ASCAT. WHILE TRACKING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA 17P(LUCAS) DELIVERED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MORE THAN 400MM IN 24H. LOCALISED SEVERE FLOODING IS REPORTED. NEW CALEDONIA REPORTS TOP GUSTS AS HIGH AS 160KM/H.

03/00UTC
03/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, February 3rd 2021 à 15:25
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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