15UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) intensifying rapidly over the Coral Sea, landfall in 18hours, likely intensifying rapidly once over the Gulf of Carpentaria

Rapidly intensifying cyclone.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:
Location: 12.6°S 144.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 144.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM EAST
OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA (CS) THAT CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE AND A CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND
ABRF. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 29C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 20P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA (CYP) AROUND
TAU 18 AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) SHORTLY BEFORE TAU
48. AFTERWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC
20P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING A SECONDARY LANDFALL IN THE
GOC COAST NEAR BORROLOOLA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CS WILL
PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN THE NEAR TERM - UP TO 70
KNOTS - PRIOR TO THE INITIAL LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION IN
THE CYP WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS. THE GOC WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH HIGHER (32C) SSTS AND PROMOTE A SECOND RI - UP TO 110
KNOTS - BY TAU 96 BEFORE THE SECONDARY LANDFALL. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS EVEN SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24 ONLY; AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS, AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
LAND INTERACTION LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
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