11W(TOKAGE) has reached Typhoon intensity// 10W(MA-ON) to be re-intensifying over the SCS//Invest 91E//Invest 90L, 23/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10W AND 11W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON AT APPROXIMATELY 230200Z WITH AN INCIPIENT EYE. SINCE MAKING LANDFALL, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A 230542Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING TREND BUT INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A COMPACT, ORGANIZED CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE AMSR2 IMAGE AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM APARRI (18.4N 121.6E), SHOWING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 27 KNOTS, AND TUGUEGARAO (17.6N 121.7E), SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 23 KNOTS, SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS AT TUGUEGARAO HAVE NOW SHIFTED SOUTHERLY AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST PAST THE SITE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OBVIOUSLY, INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. AFTER TRAVERSING LUZON OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AND WEAKENING, TS 10W SHOULD RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 80-100 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. THE 230000Z COAMPS INTENSITY ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THEREFORE, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS NOW HAS A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIXES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. AFTER TRAVERSING LUZON OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AND WEAKENING, TS 10W SHOULD RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 80-100 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. THE 230000Z COAMPS INTENSITY ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THEREFORE, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT.