08UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 06, 2019:
Location: 23.0°S 70.2°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt (185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 843 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060416Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO 5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS
EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C
AFTER TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 06, 2019:
Location: 23.0°S 70.2°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt (185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 843 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060416Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO 5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS
EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C
AFTER TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN
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