06UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 7.4°N 133.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST
OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL
SYSTEM WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS LOOSELY
SPIRALING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOROR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING SOME VENTILATION
TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MAY
PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR DAVAO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT UP TO
175NM BY TAU 48, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Location: 7.4°N 133.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST
OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL
SYSTEM WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS LOOSELY
SPIRALING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOROR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING SOME VENTILATION
TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MAY
PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR DAVAO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT UP TO
175NM BY TAU 48, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
WARNING 10/JTWC
WARNING 10/JTWC
03UTC FY2G
