05W(DOKSURI) peaks at Super Typhoon Intensity//Invest 91W//Invest 94B//Invest 95L// 2503utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON STY 05W(DOKSURI).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AND VERY INTENSE SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MOAT OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYEWALL, AN INDICATION OF IMMINENT EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FOR NOW, WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING STR INTO THE LUZON AND TAIWAN STRAITS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA, JUST AFTER TAU 72. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AS AN EWRC WILL NOW WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 184NM WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT MARGIN AND NVGM AND EEMN ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM LENDING ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW IN SLIGHT FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THAT SPREADS OUT TO 323NM DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY BROAD FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 250035Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A WEAK BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW FROM STY 05W. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.