04P( Sarai) still cat 1 US but forecast to weaken while tracking between Fiji and Tonga

TC 04P( SARAI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 29, 2019:
Location: 20.5°S 179.8°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
CATEGORY US: 1
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 179.9W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN A 290627Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND BANDING DEPICTED IN A
290523Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KTS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.5 (55-77 KTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, A
290540Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.7 (59 KTS), AND A
290523Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 62 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUSTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AROUND TC 04P. HOWEVER, AS VWS INCREASES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DECREASES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE CAUSING TC
04P TO STEADILY WEAKEN. TC 04P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE NER
TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT, THUS IMPACTING THE FORECAST TRACK. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUN, THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. THE MOST DOMINANT TRACK SHOWS TC 04P
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 36 BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 96. NOTABLE OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND
UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK WITH
FASTER ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NORTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIERS AND HEDGE
TOWARDS A TRACK THAT AVERAGES THE DOMINANT MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO A CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,
300300Z AND 300900Z.//
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