TC 01A. IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24H WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 72H.
2021 MAY 14 0910UTC
TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 7
As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2021:
Location: 7.8°N 123.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
OVER-LAND AND WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 10KM SOUTHEAST OF PAGADIAN CITY, MINDANAO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC 01A #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 1
As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2021:
Location: 11.6°N 72.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC 1560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 7
As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2021:
Location: 7.8°N 123.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
OVER-LAND AND WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 10KM SOUTHEAST OF PAGADIAN CITY, MINDANAO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC 01A #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 1
As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2021:
Location: 11.6°N 72.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC 1560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD 03W. WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
TD 03W.NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 75KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 24H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 24H DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TC 01A. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140231Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 96H.DUE TO THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24H WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS/US CAT 3 BY 72H. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.
TC 01A. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96H WITH A 290KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 96H. AFTER 96H, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE.
14/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TD 03W AND TC 01A. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
14/00UTC.
