2019 FEB 22 0250UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
My Remarks: Recent sat data depict a clear-cut 45KM microwave eye becoming apparent on visible imagery . Peak intensity forecast in 36H near 105knots(CAT3 US). High confidence in the forecast track over 72H and low afterwards as models widely spread out: over 945KM at +120H. Forecast CPA to Guam is approx 250km the 23rd at 17UTC.
This system is currently analysed as a 95knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 12/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 12 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2019:
Location: 8.2°N 147.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt (215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A FORMATIVE
10NM WIDE EYE FEATURE BECOMING VISIBLE BY 220100Z. A 212334Z AMSU
89GHZ AND A 212026 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25NM MICROWAVE EYE, AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF THE STRONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 02W IS TRACKING
THROUGH A REGION FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM, WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS. RELATIVELY SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
LESS, AROUND 10 KNOTS, AS THE STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTOR ARE IN
PHASE. SSTS OF 29 CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
TY 02W CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT, THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS TO THE EAST, AS IT ERODES FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE LOSS OF
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TRANSITING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE WEST OF THE MARIANAS, ALLOWING TY 02W TO TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY TAU 72. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TREND, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU
36 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BEYOND THIS POINT,
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS, LOWER
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COOLER SSTS NEAR 26 CELSIUS, LEADING
TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 55NM AT TAU 36,
INCREASING TO 155NM AT TAU 72. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE TURN POLEWARD
AROUND TAU 48 WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH THIS
RUN AND THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
DEPICTING EITHER A SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR DISSIPATION
WITH REMNANTS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE TWO, FAVORING ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BUT NOT THE TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD INTO THE COL AREA BETWEEN STRÂ’S LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA
AND NEAR 170E, FORWARD SPEED WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. CAUGHT IN THE
WEAK STEERING IN THE COL, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY A FAST-
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
RATHER DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS VWS INCREASES AND DRY,
STABLE AIR PUSHES DOWN ON IT FROM THE NORTH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TAU 72, WITH A SPREAD OF 510NM BETWEEN THE
GFS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NAVGEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF A GROUPING OF MODELS AND NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
TY #WUTIP #02W
My Remarks: Recent sat data depict a clear-cut 45KM microwave eye becoming apparent on visible imagery . Peak intensity forecast in 36H near 105knots(CAT3 US). High confidence in the forecast track over 72H and low afterwards as models widely spread out: over 945KM at +120H. Forecast CPA to Guam is approx 250km the 23rd at 17UTC.
This system is currently analysed as a 95knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 12/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 12 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2019:
Location: 8.2°N 147.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt (215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A FORMATIVE
10NM WIDE EYE FEATURE BECOMING VISIBLE BY 220100Z. A 212334Z AMSU
89GHZ AND A 212026 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25NM MICROWAVE EYE, AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF THE STRONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 02W IS TRACKING
THROUGH A REGION FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM, WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS. RELATIVELY SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
LESS, AROUND 10 KNOTS, AS THE STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTOR ARE IN
PHASE. SSTS OF 29 CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
TY 02W CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT, THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS TO THE EAST, AS IT ERODES FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE LOSS OF
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TRANSITING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE WEST OF THE MARIANAS, ALLOWING TY 02W TO TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY TAU 72. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TREND, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU
36 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BEYOND THIS POINT,
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS, LOWER
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COOLER SSTS NEAR 26 CELSIUS, LEADING
TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 55NM AT TAU 36,
INCREASING TO 155NM AT TAU 72. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE TURN POLEWARD
AROUND TAU 48 WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH THIS
RUN AND THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
DEPICTING EITHER A SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR DISSIPATION
WITH REMNANTS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE TWO, FAVORING ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BUT NOT THE TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD INTO THE COL AREA BETWEEN STRÂ’S LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA
AND NEAR 170E, FORWARD SPEED WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. CAUGHT IN THE
WEAK STEERING IN THE COL, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY A FAST-
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
RATHER DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS VWS INCREASES AND DRY,
STABLE AIR PUSHES DOWN ON IT FROM THE NORTH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TAU 72, WITH A SPREAD OF 510NM BETWEEN THE
GFS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NAVGEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF A GROUPING OF MODELS AND NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
2027UTC
