0019UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 08, 2019:
Location: 29.6°S 66.2°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID DECAY,
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS ARE SHEARED OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 212223 SSMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LLCC SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T2.4 (34 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S LIES
IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS AND
COOL SSTS (25 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, BUT IS
BEING OFFSET BY THE OTHER UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DECOUPLED AND
IS PASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALREADY LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECASTED WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
BECOMING EXTRA- OR SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER IT IS WELL NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND REORIENTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 08, 2019:
Location: 29.6°S 66.2°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID DECAY,
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS ARE SHEARED OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 212223 SSMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LLCC SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T2.4 (34 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S LIES
IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS AND
COOL SSTS (25 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, BUT IS
BEING OFFSET BY THE OTHER UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DECOUPLED AND
IS PASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALREADY LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECASTED WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
BECOMING EXTRA- OR SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER IT IS WELL NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND REORIENTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
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