0002UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 07, 2019:
Location: 25.1°S 68.1°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DISPLACES THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 062238Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CENTER FEATURE, WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OBSERVED IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE AND
THE PGTW FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). ALTHOUGH THE MOST
RECENTLY AVAILABLE SATCON ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE,
THE ADT VALUES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY IN RECENT HOURS. WHILE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS AND
DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED
DECAY OF 17S. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW REGIME, WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TILTED TROUGH
TO THE WEST. HALEH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BY WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH THE 200 MB TROUGH AND FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMNANT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WAS MAINTAINED FOR
ONE ADDITIONAL POSIT TO INDICATE THE RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z, AND 080300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 07, 2019:
Location: 25.1°S 68.1°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DISPLACES THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 062238Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CENTER FEATURE, WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OBSERVED IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE AND
THE PGTW FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). ALTHOUGH THE MOST
RECENTLY AVAILABLE SATCON ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE,
THE ADT VALUES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY IN RECENT HOURS. WHILE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS AND
DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED
DECAY OF 17S. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW REGIME, WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TILTED TROUGH
TO THE WEST. HALEH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BY WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH THE 200 MB TROUGH AND FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMNANT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WAS MAINTAINED FOR
ONE ADDITIONAL POSIT TO INDICATE THE RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z, AND 080300Z.//
NNNN
WARN20
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