03UTC: 14W, Lingling(15W) and Kajiki(16W) updates

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 14W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 03, 2019:
Location: 17.0°N 162.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 14W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WEAK BUT HAVE
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 14W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W BEGINS TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND
ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN, BOTH IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW HAS A SPREAD OF 220 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS NOW LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30 DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 320 NM. NAVGEM IS THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER AND RE-CURVES TS 14W SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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TS LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 03, 2019:
Location: 19.9°N 123.9°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 022255Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 15W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (5 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR TS 15W THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN BUT
OVERALL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR. NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST BY
TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE STILL INDICATE A
SLOWER TRACK SPEED. THE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 72 IS 200 NM. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE LONG TERM, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 15W
NORTHWARD. AS TS 15W TRACKS NORTHWARD IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BOTH A LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK DISAGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF 400 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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TD KAJIKI(16W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 03, 2019:
Location: 15.9°N 107.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
WDPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
58 NM WEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON 26-27 KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY MINIMAL DEGRADATION IN SYSTEM
STRUCTURE SINCE LANDFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OVERLAND AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND LAOS. TD 16W IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO INCLUDE THE SYSTEM
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DISSIPATES OF EASTERN INDOCHINA.
   B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
6 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM
IS WEAKENED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF INDOCHINA AND IMPACTED BY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL BEGIN TO DE-COUPLE. THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. HOWEVER, THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 36 PRIOR TO REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE WEAKENED AND DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
CAUSING MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS TO PRODUCE ERRATIC TRACK
SOLUTIONS AFTER TAUS 6-12 (MODEL DEPENDENT) CAUSING A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.//
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