01W(DUJUAN) 45knots and slowly intensifying/ 21S(GUAMBE) 60knots and developing an eye, 19/02 03utc updates

01W(DUJUAN). 19/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A PERSISTENT MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 19/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 01W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AND SOUTH OF JAPAN. IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24H UNTIL THE MAJOR TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STR TO RE-BUILD NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING NEAR 48H. TS 01W WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY 24- 36H UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AFTER 72H, TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY 96H, WILL REACH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OFF THE ISLAND OF MINDORO. INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 20 KNOTS BY 120H.

01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 1045KM AT 120H (MINUS UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN). THESE SOLUTIONS ARE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A RE-BUILDING STR AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. DUE TO THE ERRATIC MOTION AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

01W(DUJUAN). 19/0230UTC. IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

21S(GUAMBE). 19/0245UTC. THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING AN EYE FEATURE. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS GAINING STEAM.

21S(GUAMBE). NUMERAL GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 2 OR 3 WITHIN THE NEXT 48H.

19/00UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.