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Western Pacific: remnants of 16W still Medium//Eastern Pacific:12E(LINDA) still a CAT 2 annular Hurricane//Atlantic: 07L&08L forecast to reach Hurricane intensity,18/06utc updates



THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 16W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 720 KM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180413UTC ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 180042UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALS A CLOSED, BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF 20KNOT WIND OFFSET TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST WITH NUMERICAL MODELS HAVING MINOR INTESIFICATION THROUGH 24-48H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 16W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 720 KM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180413UTC ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 180042UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALS A CLOSED, BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF 20KNOT WIND OFFSET TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST WITH NUMERICAL MODELS HAVING MINOR INTESIFICATION THROUGH 24-48H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

REMNANTS OF TD 16W. GUIDANCE.
REMNANTS OF TD 16W. GUIDANCE.


18/00UTC.
18/00UTC.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 32 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 32 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC.
1221080818 107N 944W  20
1221080900 111N 956W  25
1221080906 115N 968W  25
1221080912 119N 981W  30
1221080918 123N 991W  30
1221081000 126N 999W  30
1221081006 130N1007W  30
1221081012 135N1016W  30
1221081018 141N1023W  40
1221081100 142N1031W  45
1221081106 141N1043W  45
1221081112 138N1053W  50
1221081118 137N1058W  60
1221081200 138N1063W  60
1221081206 142N1067W  60
1221081212 146N1074W  65
1221081218 150N1082W  65
1221081300 156N1091W  75
1221081306 161N1101W  80
1221081312 166N1112W  90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081412 186N1155W 115
1221081418 190N1165W 115
1221081500 193N1177W 110
1221081506 193N1187W 100
1221081512 191N1197W 100
1221081518 189N1207W  95
1221081600 187N1216W  95
1221081606 183N1225W  90
1221081612 180N1233W  90
1221081618 178N1242W  90
1221081700 177N1250W  85
1221081706 176N1260W  80
1221081712 175N1269W  75
1221081718 176N1278W  80
1221081800 178N1290W  90
NNNN

HU 12E(LINDA). CURRENT INTENSITY IS BACK AT 90KNOTS/CAT 2. THE CYCLONE IS STILL DISPLAYING ANNULAR FEATURES WITH A LARGE EYE AND RECENTLY COOLING TOPS.
HU 12E(LINDA). CURRENT INTENSITY IS BACK AT 90KNOTS/CAT 2. THE CYCLONE IS STILL DISPLAYING ANNULAR FEATURES WITH A LARGE EYE AND RECENTLY COOLING TOPS.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.
HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

18/00UTC.
18/00UTC.


ATLANTIC. TS 07L(GRACE). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 75KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 21/00UTC.
ATLANTIC. TS 07L(GRACE). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 75KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 21/00UTC.
0721080918 115N 206W  25
0721081000 115N 224W  25
0721081006 115N 242W  25
0721081012 115N 261W  25
0721081018 117N 278W  25
0721081100 118N 291W  25
0721081106 120N 310W  25
0721081112 123N 332W  25
0721081118 127N 353W  25
0721081200 133N 374W  25
0721081206 138N 393W  25
0721081212 142N 412W  30
0721081218 144N 430W  30
0721081300 145N 448W  30
0721081306 149N 467W  30
0721081312 152N 487W  30
0721081318 153N 508W  30
0721081400 154N 527W  30
0721081406 156N 547W  35
0721081412 158N 573W  40
0721081418 162N 597W  40
0721081500 165N 617W  35
0721081506 167N 637W  35
0721081512 170N 653W  35
0721081518 170N 667W  30
0721081600 171N 681W  30
0721081606 173N 695W  30
0721081612 175N 708W  30
0721081618 177N 720W  30
0721081700 178N 733W  30
0721081706 180N 747W  35
0721081712 181N 761W  45
0721081718 182N 774W  45
0721081800 183N 786W  50

TS 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.
TS 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.

TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 22/00UTC.
TS 08L(HENRI). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 18/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 55KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 80KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 22/00UTC.


TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
TS 08L(HENRI). GUIDANCE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, August 18th 2021 à 11:05
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Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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