Western Pacific: a deepening subtropical depression//Atlantic: TS 12L(LARRY) forecast to become a Major Hurricane in 72hours,01/09utc updates

INVEST 93W. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.9N 163.3E, APPROXIMATELY 705 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 312214Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE CENTER AND A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED 165 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT PRIMARILY CONTRIBUTED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 93W IS TRACKING OVER WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

INVEST 93W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL UNDERGO SLOW CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION BEFORE RECURVING POLEWARD.

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ATLANTIC. TD 10L(KATE). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 01/09UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 25KNOTS BY 02/18UTC.

TD 10L(KATE). GUIDANCE.

TS 12L(LARRY). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 01/09UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS: FORECAST TO REACH 70KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 02/18UTC AND 100KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 04/06UTC.

TS 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.

01/0930UTC.