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Western Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 2 systems//Eastern Pacific: Hurricane 08E(HILDA) still at 75knots, 01/18utc updates



01/18UTC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR BOTH INVEST 96W & INVEST 98W. BOTH AREAS HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF DEVELOPING AT LEAST 25KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTRER WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITTE BULLETINS ON 96W.
01/18UTC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR BOTH INVEST 96W & INVEST 98W. BOTH AREAS HAVE HIGH CHANCES OF DEVELOPING AT LEAST 25KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTRER WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITTE BULLETINS ON 96W.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 96W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 295 KM NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 010334UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 010037UTC ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
INVEST 96W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 295 KM NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 010334UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 010037UTC ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
9621073112 254N1428E  15
9621073118 260N1432E  20
9621080100 268N1434E  20
9621080106 272N1430E  20
9621080112 280N1423E  20

INVEST 96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
INVEST 96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

INVEST 98W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/1430UTC. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 010749UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST, THUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENING INVEST 98W. INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
INVEST 98W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/1430UTC. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 010749UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST, THUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENING INVEST 98W. INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
9821073106 160N1515E  15
9821073112 165N1521E  15
9821073118 170N1527E  15
9821080100 176N1533E  20
9821080106 188N1540E  20
9821080112 200N1542E  20

INVEST 98W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE INVEST 98W WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
INVEST 98W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE INVEST 98W WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 08E(HILDA). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 01/16UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 WITHIN 24H.
EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 08E(HILDA). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 01/16UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80KNOTS/CAT 1 WITHIN 24H.
0821072806 117N1025W  15
0821072812 117N1033W  15
0821072818 117N1041W  20
0821072900 117N1049W  25
0821072906 117N1058W  25
0821072912 117N1067W  25
0821072918 118N1075W  30
0821073000 118N1084W  30
0821073006 118N1100W  30
0821073012 117N1117W  30
0821073018 119N1130W  40
0821073100 129N1140W  40
0821073106 132N1152W  45
0821073112 136N1162W  55
0821073118 140N1174W  60
0821080100 142N1183W  75
0821080106 144N1190W  75
0821080112 145N1198W  75

08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.
08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.

TD 09E. WARNING 7/FINAL ISSUED AT 01/10UTC.
TD 09E. WARNING 7/FINAL ISSUED AT 01/10UTC.
0921072512 137N1116W  15
0921072518 137N1124W  15
0921072600 136N1130W  15
0921072606 135N1135W  15
0921072612 133N1140W  20
0921072618 132N1147W  20
0921072700 131N1155W  20
0921072706 130N1161W  20
0921072712 128N1166W  20
0921072718 125N1169W  20
0921072800 125N1175W  25
0921072806 130N1184W  25
0921072812 134N1190W  25
0921072818 137N1199W  25
0921072900 137N1210W  30
0921072906 136N1220W  30
0921072912 134N1226W  30
0921072918 132N1233W  30
0921073000 130N1238W  30
0921073006 127N1244W  30
0921073012 125N1250W  30
0921073018 124N1256W  25
0921073100 123N1263W  25
0921073106 122N1269W  25
0921073112 120N1276W  25
0921073118 115N1280W  25
0921080100 115N1275W  25
0921080106 114N1273W  25
0921080112 124N1271W  25
0921080118 127N1276W  25

09E. GUIDANCE.
09E. GUIDANCE.

INVEST 91E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 01/1330UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010908UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INVEST 91E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 01/1330UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010908UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
9121073012 113N 994W  20
9121073018 114N1008W  20
9121073100 115N1025W  20
9121073106 119N1038W  20
9121073112 128N1052W  20
9121073118 140N1065W  25
9121080100 151N1078W  25
9121080106 160N1090W  25
9121080112 167N1100W  25

INVEST 91E. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION THAT DEPICTS STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
INVEST 91E. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL UNDERGO MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION THAT DEPICTS STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

01/12UTC.
01/12UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, August 1st 2021 à 22:52
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Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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