Western Pacific: TS 18W(CONSON) now forecast to make landfall over the Philippines at Typhoon intensity, 19W set to intensify, 06/09utc updates

TS 18W(CONSON). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CURRENT INTENSITY AND FORECAST INTENSITY HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, SKIRTING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINES AND THEN EVENTUALLY CROSSING LUZON 70 KM NORTH OF MANILA AROUND 72H. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER, HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS HAINAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 24H, AT WHICH TIME LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY DECREASE TO 55 KNOTS AS IT CROSSES LUZON. BY 120H, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 18W TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS/CAT 1. OF NOTE, TD 19W IS CURRENTLY 1295KM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF TS 18W. THIS DISTANCE IS ON THE HIGHER THRESHOLD OF POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT PREDICT ANY INTERACTION, AS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS MAINTAIN ABOUT 1300 KM SEPARATION UP TO 72H, AT WHICH POINT THE DISTANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE.

TS 18W(CONSON). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT WAS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND 0500Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 060442Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT SHOWING 50 KNOT WIND IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH POSSIBLE 55-65 KNOT GUSTS.

TS 18W(CONSON). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST, IN WHICH ALL MODELS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO 72H, AND THEN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTERWARDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY TREND, WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING PERIOD AROUND 72H BEFORE RESUMING STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS. THE OUTLIER IS GFS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS THEREFORE PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.

TD 19W. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING OUTFLOW. THIS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.

TD 19W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH IS STEADILY CONSOLIDATING WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 2357Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD FIELD OF 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.

TD 19W. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST UP TO 72H, AT WHICH POINT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT REACH OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 480 KM BY 120H, IGNORING GFS WHICH IS AN OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT WEST AFTER 72H. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SPREAD RANGING FROM 75 KNOTS TO 115 KNOTS AT 120H. AGAIN, THE EXCEPTION IS GFS, WHICH FAVORED STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE 00Z MODEL RUN, AND IS NOW CURRENTLY SHOWING THE SYSTEM NOT GOING ABOVE 25 KNOTS. TO OFFSET THIS, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.

JTWC ARE NOW ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 18W AND 19W.

EASTERN PACIFIC. INVEST 96E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 06/0630UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 103.9W TO 18.3N 106.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

INVEST 96E. GUIDANCE.

ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 23 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 105KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AGAIN AT 110KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SETS IN.

HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TRACK-WISE, LESS SO REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HU 12L(LARRY). THE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETED AS THE CYCLONE IS SHOWCASING A LARGE 90KM WIDE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED WITH A SINGLE EYE-WALL STRUCTURE.

06/1015UTC.