Western Pacific: TS 16W forecast to gradually approach the Marianas islands next 4 days// Eastern Pacific: 12E(LINDA) is now a CAT 1 Hurricane, intensifying,13/03utc updates

13/00UTC.

TS 16W. WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 13/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BUFFETTED BY WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING TUTT CELL IN ITS PATH LEAVES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. IF TRACK SHIFTS TOO FAR NORTH, SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT, BUT IF TS 16W PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TUTT CELL, THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE REACHING THE MARIANAS. ADDITIONALLY, AROUND 72H AN INCREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER PROVIDE AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TS 16W.

TS 16W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 122209UTC AMSU PASS SHOWING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ADT.

TS 16W. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH LOW CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, ONLY INCREASING UP TO ONLY 200KM THROUGH 120H, DISREGARDING NAVGEM'S TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY RIGHT OF TRACK. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM, THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT UP TO 72H, SUPPORTING A FLAT INTENSITY UP TO 72H. HOWEVER, AFTER 72H, MODELS STILL REMAIN BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON INTENSITY.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 13/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 75KNOTS/CAT 1 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 95KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 14/12UTC.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

TD 11E(KEVIN). WARNING 21/FINAL ISSUED AT 12/16UTC.

13/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. TD 06L(FRED). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 13/03UTC.

TD 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.

INVEST 95L. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 13/11UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 46.5W TO 15.7N 52.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600UTC INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 46.5W. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCETRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER OF A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM TODAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

INVEST 95L. GUIDANCE.

13/0330UTC.

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.