Western Pacific: TD 18W gradually intensifying and approaching the Philippines, TCFA issued for Invest 94W//Atlantic: 12L(LARRY) strong CAT 3, 06/03utc updates

TD 18W. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BALER, PHILIPPINES AROUND 84H, CROSS LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE 96H. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED FURTHER BY OUTFLOW FROM ANOTHER CYCLONE WEST OF GUAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT, WILL FUEL WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KNOTS BY 72H; AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION, MOSTLY, WILL REDUCE IT TO 40 KNOTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM WATER MAY AID TO RE-INTENSIFY IT BACK TO 45 KNOTS BY 120H.

TD 18W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052126Z SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A TUTT CELL 5 DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

TD 18W.MODEL DISCUSSION: THE HANDFUL OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE IMPACT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES.

INVEST 94W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 05/2330UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 610 KM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 052101Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10KT) AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

INVEST 94W.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 94 TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS.

06/00UTC.

06/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY) WARNING 22 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 110KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY BY 07/00UTC AND DROP TO 85KNOTS/CAT2 BY 10/00UTC.

HU 12L(LARRY). GOING THROUGH EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES(BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA). IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.

HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.

06/07UTC.