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Western Pacific: Super Typhoon 19W(CHANTHU) is intensifying once again 215km SE of Aparri, 18W(CONSON) update, E.Pacific & Atlantic updates10/03utc




IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO GET ANIMATED.


TS 18W(CONSON). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CONSON WILL GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TOWARD CENTRAL VIETNAM AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE 72H NEAR DANANG. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 24H; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT DOWN TO 35KNOTS BY LANDFALL. CONCURRENTLY, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK, EFFECTIVELY DELAYING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL. TS 18W WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND BY 96H.
TS 18W(CONSON). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CONSON WILL GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TOWARD CENTRAL VIETNAM AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE 72H NEAR DANANG. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 24H; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT DOWN TO 35KNOTS BY LANDFALL. CONCURRENTLY, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK, EFFECTIVELY DELAYING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL. TS 18W WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND BY 96H.

1821090412 110N1319E  15
1821090418 111N1315E  15
1821090500 110N1310E  15
1821090506 108N1305E  15
1821090512 104N1296E  30
1821090518 102N1285E  40
1821090600 105N1275E  50
1821090612 112N1259E  65
1821090618 115N1249E  60
1821090706 125N1233E  50
1821090712 130N1228E  55
1821090718 133N1220E  55
1821090800 137N1214E  55
1821090806 141N1208E  55
1821090812 147N1201E  50
1821090818 148N1192E  50
1821090900 153N1183E  50
1821090906 160N1171E  50
1821090912 162N1150E  45
1821090918 161N1137E  45
1821091000 158N1126E  45
NNNN

Western Pacific: Super Typhoon 19W(CHANTHU) is intensifying once again 215km SE of Aparri, 18W(CONSON) update, E.Pacific & Atlantic updates10/03utc


TS 18W(CONSON).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE MAIN FEEDER BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 092327Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MEDIAN OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
TS 18W(CONSON).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE MAIN FEEDER BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 092327Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MEDIAN OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.


TS 18W(CONSON). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH AN UNEVEN SPREAD TO OVER 370KM BY 96H, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO THE VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY LAND INTERACTION.
TS 18W(CONSON). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH AN UNEVEN SPREAD TO OVER 370KM BY 96H, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO THE VARIABILITY INTRODUCED BY LAND INTERACTION.


STY 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOLLOWING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, STY CHANTU IS POISED FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT A MORE MODEST ONE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE UNDER A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD TAIWAN, PEAKING AT 135KNOTS/CAT 4 IN THE LUZON STRAIT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN TAIWAN AROUND 48H. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT EXITS INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AND BEELINES TOWARD CHEJU ISLAND, DOWN TO 50KNOTS BY 120H.
STY 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOLLOWING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, STY CHANTU IS POISED FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT A MORE MODEST ONE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE UNDER A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD TAIWAN, PEAKING AT 135KNOTS/CAT 4 IN THE LUZON STRAIT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN TAIWAN AROUND 48H. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT EXITS INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AND BEELINES TOWARD CHEJU ISLAND, DOWN TO 50KNOTS BY 120H.
1921090506 123N1397E  15
1921090512 126N1395E  20
1921090518 130N1389E  20
1921090600 135N1385E  20
1921090606 141N1382E  25
1921090612 148N1379E  35
1921090618 152N1373E  45
1921090700 156N1366E  50
1921090706 161N1357E  70
1921090712 163N1346E  95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
NNNN
 


IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO GET IT ANIMATED.

STY 19W(CHANTHU).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS REGAINED ITS SYMMETRICAL AND DENSE STRUCTURE AS ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND ITS EYE HAS SHRUNK BACK TO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 9-KM PINHOLE DIAMETER. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A CIMSS MICROWAVE-BASED M-PERC PRODUCT INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS UNDERGONE A SECONDARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PINHOLE EYE THAT STACKED VERTICALLY DOWN TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, RJTD, AND RCTP. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
STY 19W(CHANTHU).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS REGAINED ITS SYMMETRICAL AND DENSE STRUCTURE AS ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND ITS EYE HAS SHRUNK BACK TO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 9-KM PINHOLE DIAMETER. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A CIMSS MICROWAVE-BASED M-PERC PRODUCT INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS UNDERGONE A SECONDARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PINHOLE EYE THAT STACKED VERTICALLY DOWN TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, RJTD, AND RCTP. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

STY 19W(CHANTHU). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER, EVENLY SPREADING TO 430KM BY 120H. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 72H, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NVGM. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY THAT OFTEN COMES WITH LAND PASSAGE.
STY 19W(CHANTHU). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER, EVENLY SPREADING TO 430KM BY 120H. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 72H, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NVGM. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY THAT OFTEN COMES WITH LAND PASSAGE.

10/00UTC.
10/00UTC.


EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 15E(OLAF). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 80KNOTS/CAT1. THE HURRICANE IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL APPRX 25KM EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS/MEXICO.
EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 15E(OLAF). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 80KNOTS/CAT1. THE HURRICANE IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL APPRX 25KM EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS/MEXICO.
1521090412 126N 993W  20
1521090418 130N1000W  20
1521090500 134N1007W  20
1521090506 138N1014W  20
1521090512 144N1021W  20
1521090518 150N1028W  20
1521090600 157N1034W  25
1521090606 162N1042W  25
1521090612 167N1051W  25
1521090618 170N1058W  25
1521090700 174N1063W  25
1521090706 177N1068W  25
1521090712 179N1073W  30
1521090718 181N1078W  30
1521090800 181N1073W  30
1521090806 183N1070W  30
1521090812 187N1073W  35
1521090818 192N1075W  40
1521090900 197N1076W  45
1521090906 202N1078W  55
1521090912 209N1081W  65
1521090918 218N1086W  75
1521091000 227N1093W  80
NNNN

HU 15E(OLAF). GUIDANCE.
HU 15E(OLAF). GUIDANCE.


10/00UTC.
10/00UTC.


ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 38 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.CURRENT INTENSITY IS 80KNOTS AND IS STILL FORECAST TO BE AT HURRICANE LEVEL NORTH OF 50°NORTH BY 11/12UTC.
ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 38 ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.CURRENT INTENSITY IS 80KNOTS AND IS STILL FORECAST TO BE AT HURRICANE LEVEL NORTH OF 50°NORTH BY 11/12UTC.
1221083000  82N 115W  15
1221083006  82N 127W  20
1221083012  82N 139W  20
1221083018  83N 151W  25
1221083100  86N 163W  25
1221083106  96N 175W  30
1221083112 105N 190W  30
1221083118 112N 206W  30
1221090100 119N 225W  35
1221090106 122N 245W  40
1221090112 124N 265W  45
1221090118 125N 284W  55
1221090200 127N 300W  60
1221090206 130N 316W  65
1221090212 133N 333W  70
1221090218 136N 350W  70
1221090300 139N 367W  75
1221090306 141N 384W  80
1221090312 144N 400W  80
1221090318 147N 414W  85
1221090400 152N 427W 100
1221090406 158N 440W 105
1221090412 164N 453W 110
1221090418 170N 465W 110
1221090500 177N 475W 105
1221090506 184N 485W 105
1221090512 191N 493W 110
1221090518 201N 502W 110
1221090600 207N 510W 110
1221090606 214N 519W 105
1221090612 218N 526W 105
1221090618 222N 535W 110
1221090700 227N 542W 110
1221090706 233N 548W 105
1221090712 240N 554W 100
1221090718 247N 560W 100
1221090800 254N 565W 100
1221090806 262N 571W 100
1221090812 272N 579W  95
1221090818 282N 589W  95
1221090900 291N 599W  85
1221090906 302N 608W  85
1221090912 313N 615W  80
1221090918 330N 621W  80
1221091000 344N 623W  80

HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.
HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.

POST TS 13L(MINDY). WARNING 6/FINAL ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.
POST TS 13L(MINDY). WARNING 6/FINAL ISSUED AT 10/03UTC.
1321083100 112N 743W  15
1321083106 113N 754W  15
1321083112 115N 763W  20
1321083118 118N 772W  20
1321090100 121N 780W  25
1321090106 127N 800W  30
1321090112 133N 811W  30
1321090118 134N 822W  30
1321090200 135N 832W  30
1321090206 136N 835W  30
1321090212 137N 839W  30
1321090218 141N 844W  25
1321090300 148N 851W  20
1321090306 152N 860W  20
1321090312 163N 881W  20
1321090318 171N 892W  20
1321090400 177N 898W  20
1321090406 182N 902W  20
1321090412 186N 905W  20
1321090418 190N 907W  20
1321090500 193N 908W  20
1321090506 195N 909W  20
1321090512 197N 910W  20
1321090518 199N 912W  20
1321090600 202N 915W  20
1321090606 205N 917W  20
1321090612 210N 920W  20
1321090618 215N 922W  20
1321090700 222N 924W  20
1321090706 230N 924W  20
1321090712 238N 921W  25
1321090718 244N 918W  20
1321090800 249N 914W  20
1321090806 260N 900W  20
1321090812 272N 884W  20
1321090818 284N 868W  35
1321090900 295N 854W  40
1321090906 305N 839W  35
1321090912 312N 818W  30
1321090918 317N 794W  30
1321091000 322N 761W  30

EX TS 13L(MINDY). GUIDANCE.
EX TS 13L(MINDY). GUIDANCE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, September 10th 2021 à 08:40
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