INVEST 94W. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 390 KM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABSENT OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 040039Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS PRIMARILY LIGHT (5-10 KT) WINDS WITH SOME 15-25KT WINDS UNDER THE CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
INVEST 94W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD 17W. WARNING 8/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 03/21UTC.
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 30KNOTS.
1721083118 238N1646E 25
1721090100 243N1639E 30
1721090106 251N1633E 30
1721090112 256N1618E 30
1721090118 262N1605E 30
1721090200 267N1595E 30
1721090206 271N1589E 30
1721090212 277N1586E 30
1721090218 290N1582E 30
1721090300 297N1576E 30
1721090306 306N1578E 30
1721090312 315N1583E 30
1721090318 329N1596E 25
NNNN
1721083118 238N1646E 25
1721090100 243N1639E 30
1721090106 251N1633E 30
1721090112 256N1618E 30
1721090118 262N1605E 30
1721090200 267N1595E 30
1721090206 271N1589E 30
1721090212 277N1586E 30
1721090218 290N1582E 30
1721090300 297N1576E 30
1721090306 306N1578E 30
1721090312 315N1583E 30
1721090318 329N1596E 25
NNNN
REMNANTS OF TD 17W. GUIDANCE.
04/00UTC.
04/00UTC.
ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 04/09UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 115KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 05/06UTC AND PEAK AT 120KNOTS BY 05/18UTC.
1221083000 82N 115W 15
1221083006 82N 127W 20
1221083012 82N 139W 20
1221083018 83N 151W 25
1221083100 86N 163W 25
1221083106 96N 175W 30
1221083112 105N 190W 30
1221083118 112N 206W 30
1221090100 119N 225W 35
1221090106 122N 245W 40
1221090112 124N 265W 45
1221090118 125N 284W 55
1221090200 127N 300W 60
1221090206 130N 316W 65
1221090212 133N 333W 70
1221090218 136N 350W 70
1221090300 139N 367W 75
1221090306 141N 384W 80
1221090312 144N 400W 80
1221090318 147N 414W 85
1221090318 147N 414W 85
1221090400 152N 427W 100
1221090406 160N 440W 100
1221083006 82N 127W 20
1221083012 82N 139W 20
1221083018 83N 151W 25
1221083100 86N 163W 25
1221083106 96N 175W 30
1221083112 105N 190W 30
1221083118 112N 206W 30
1221090100 119N 225W 35
1221090106 122N 245W 40
1221090112 124N 265W 45
1221090118 125N 284W 55
1221090200 127N 300W 60
1221090206 130N 316W 65
1221090212 133N 333W 70
1221090218 136N 350W 70
1221090300 139N 367W 75
1221090306 141N 384W 80
1221090312 144N 400W 80
1221090318 147N 414W 85
1221090318 147N 414W 85
1221090400 152N 427W 100
1221090406 160N 440W 100
HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.
HU 12L(LARRY). 04/1230UTC. TXNT27 KNES 041201 TCSNTL A. 12L (LARRY) B. 04/1130Z C. 16.5N D. 44.8W E. ONE/GOES-E F. T4.5/5.0 G. IR/EIR/VIS H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE DT. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT AND IS ALSO EQUAL TO 4.5. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPACTED BY SHEAR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...SAMBUCCI
