Western Pacific: Invest 93W is now TD 17W//Atlantic: 12L(LARRY) is an intensifying Hurricane, 02/09utc updates

JTWC ARE NOW ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 17W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON THE SYSTEM.

TD 17W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 02/09UTC. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 12H BEFORE SLOWLY AND STEADILY TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 36H. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS, TD 17W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD, THE TUTT CELL WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, EASING THE UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT AND DECREASING SHEAR, WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE 29C, WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24H TO A PEAK OF 35 KNOTS. BY 36H THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL DECREASE NET OUTFLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AT 36H. BY 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT NO LATER THAN 72H AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 60H.

TD 17W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TD 17W IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED TUTT CELL WHICH HAS AIDED IN DEEPENING THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 020541Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE DVORAK FIXES.

TD 17W. MODEL DISCUSSION: OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TD 17W IS ON TRACK FOR A RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) AXIS BY 36H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO SUBTRACT THE UNREALISTIC MOTION OF THE AFUM TRACKER WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN RELATIVELY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COAMPS BEING THE OUTLIER INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION(ETT).

02/00UTC.

02/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 02/09UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 65KNOTS/CAT 1 AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 100KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 48H.

HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.

02/0830UTC.