JTWC HAVE ISSUED WARNING 28/FINAL ON 16W AT 17/09UTC. THE SYSTEM IS DOWN-GRADED TO MEDIUM WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF REGENERATION. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON IT.
TD 16W. WARNING 28/FINAL ISSUED AT 17/09UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF WEAK, UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AND A 170344UTC 165 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SHALLOW CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LEND ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH VERY WARM SST VALUES (31-32 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FURTHER HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
1621080700 77N1670W 15
1621080706 78N1678W 20
1621080712 80N1684W 20
1621080718 88N1688W 25
1621080800 95N1694W 25
1621080806 99N1705W 20
1621080812 100N1719W 20
1621080818 105N1730W 20
1621080900 110N1740W 20
1621080906 115N1751W 20
1621080912 117N1764W 20
1621080918 120N1789W 20
1621081000 121N1797W 20
1621081006 122N1795E 20
1621081012 122N1787E 25
1621081018 122N1780E 30
1621081100 123N1772E 30
1621081106 124N1766E 30
1621081112 121N1759E 30
1621081118 121N1750E 30
1621081200 121N1740E 25
1621081206 128N1727E 25
1621081212 126N1713E 30
1621081218 126N1699E 30
1621081300 127N1686E 35
1621081306 128N1674E 35
1621081312 128N1662E 35
1621081318 126N1647E 30
1621081400 125N1632E 30
1621081406 124N1617E 35
1621081412 123N1603E 35
1621081418 125N1591E 35
1621081500 126N1577E 30
1621081506 127N1561E 30
1621081512 129N1545E 25
1621081518 132N1530E 25
1621081600 134N1514E 25
1621081606 135N1498E 20
1621081612 132N1480E 20
1621081618 132N1463E 20
1621081700 133N1451E 20
1621081706 134N1439E 20
NNNN
1621080706 78N1678W 20
1621080712 80N1684W 20
1621080718 88N1688W 25
1621080800 95N1694W 25
1621080806 99N1705W 20
1621080812 100N1719W 20
1621080818 105N1730W 20
1621080900 110N1740W 20
1621080906 115N1751W 20
1621080912 117N1764W 20
1621080918 120N1789W 20
1621081000 121N1797W 20
1621081006 122N1795E 20
1621081012 122N1787E 25
1621081018 122N1780E 30
1621081100 123N1772E 30
1621081106 124N1766E 30
1621081112 121N1759E 30
1621081118 121N1750E 30
1621081200 121N1740E 25
1621081206 128N1727E 25
1621081212 126N1713E 30
1621081218 126N1699E 30
1621081300 127N1686E 35
1621081306 128N1674E 35
1621081312 128N1662E 35
1621081318 126N1647E 30
1621081400 125N1632E 30
1621081406 124N1617E 35
1621081412 123N1603E 35
1621081418 125N1591E 35
1621081500 126N1577E 30
1621081506 127N1561E 30
1621081512 129N1545E 25
1621081518 132N1530E 25
1621081600 134N1514E 25
1621081606 135N1498E 20
1621081612 132N1480E 20
1621081618 132N1463E 20
1621081700 133N1451E 20
1621081706 134N1439E 20
NNNN
TD 16W. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SPECIFICALLY, THE HWRF AND COAMPS MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 24H AND 48H, HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS REFLECTS THE CURRENT COMPLEX AND UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD.
1221080818 107N 944W 20
1221080900 111N 956W 25
1221080906 115N 968W 25
1221080912 119N 981W 30
1221080918 123N 991W 30
1221081000 126N 999W 30
1221081006 130N1007W 30
1221081012 135N1016W 30
1221081018 141N1023W 40
1221081100 142N1031W 45
1221081106 141N1043W 45
1221081112 138N1053W 50
1221081118 137N1058W 60
1221081200 138N1063W 60
1221081206 142N1067W 60
1221081212 146N1074W 65
1221081218 150N1082W 65
1221081300 156N1091W 75
1221081306 161N1101W 80
1221081312 166N1112W 90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081412 186N1155W 115
1221081418 190N1165W 115
1221081500 193N1177W 110
1221081506 193N1187W 100
1221081512 191N1197W 100
1221081518 189N1207W 95
1221081600 187N1216W 95
1221081606 183N1225W 90
1221081612 180N1233W 90
1221081618 178N1242W 90
1221081700 177N1250W 85
NNNN
1221080900 111N 956W 25
1221080906 115N 968W 25
1221080912 119N 981W 30
1221080918 123N 991W 30
1221081000 126N 999W 30
1221081006 130N1007W 30
1221081012 135N1016W 30
1221081018 141N1023W 40
1221081100 142N1031W 45
1221081106 141N1043W 45
1221081112 138N1053W 50
1221081118 137N1058W 60
1221081200 138N1063W 60
1221081206 142N1067W 60
1221081212 146N1074W 65
1221081218 150N1082W 65
1221081300 156N1091W 75
1221081306 161N1101W 80
1221081312 166N1112W 90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
1221081406 182N1143W 110
1221081412 186N1155W 115
1221081418 190N1165W 115
1221081500 193N1177W 110
1221081506 193N1187W 100
1221081512 191N1197W 100
1221081518 189N1207W 95
1221081600 187N1216W 95
1221081606 183N1225W 90
1221081612 180N1233W 90
1221081618 178N1242W 90
1221081700 177N1250W 85
NNNN
0621080718 112N 493W 25
0621080800 113N 503W 25
0621080806 115N 514W 25
0621080812 119N 528W 25
0621080818 122N 540W 25
0621080900 126N 552W 25
0621080906 130N 564W 25
0621080912 134N 576W 25
0621080918 139N 587W 30
0621081000 146N 601W 30
0621081006 153N 615W 30
0621081012 160N 631W 30
0621081018 167N 646W 30
0621081100 174N 661W 35
0621081106 177N 676W 35
0621081112 180N 691W 40
0621081118 185N 704W 35
0621081200 192N 716W 30
0621081206 200N 729W 30
0621081212 207N 740W 30
0621081218 209N 746W 30
0621081300 214N 752W 30
0621081306 218N 762W 30
0621081312 221N 777W 30
0621081318 221N 791W 30
0621081400 225N 802W 30
0621081406 229N 812W 30
0621081412 230N 826W 30
0621081418 232N 837W 30
0621081500 235N 841W 30
0621081506 245N 843W 35
0621081512 258N 847W 35
0621081518 263N 851W 40
0621081600 270N 857W 45
0621081606 277N 859W 45
0621081612 287N 857W 50
0621081618 295N 854W 55
0621081700 306N 853W 45
0621080800 113N 503W 25
0621080806 115N 514W 25
0621080812 119N 528W 25
0621080818 122N 540W 25
0621080900 126N 552W 25
0621080906 130N 564W 25
0621080912 134N 576W 25
0621080918 139N 587W 30
0621081000 146N 601W 30
0621081006 153N 615W 30
0621081012 160N 631W 30
0621081018 167N 646W 30
0621081100 174N 661W 35
0621081106 177N 676W 35
0621081112 180N 691W 40
0621081118 185N 704W 35
0621081200 192N 716W 30
0621081206 200N 729W 30
0621081212 207N 740W 30
0621081218 209N 746W 30
0621081300 214N 752W 30
0621081306 218N 762W 30
0621081312 221N 777W 30
0621081318 221N 791W 30
0621081400 225N 802W 30
0621081406 229N 812W 30
0621081412 230N 826W 30
0621081418 232N 837W 30
0621081500 235N 841W 30
0621081506 245N 843W 35
0621081512 258N 847W 35
0621081518 263N 851W 40
0621081600 270N 857W 45
0621081606 277N 859W 45
0621081612 287N 857W 50
0621081618 295N 854W 55
0621081700 306N 853W 45
TD 07L(GRACE). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 17/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 21/00UTC.
0721080918 115N 206W 25
0721081000 115N 224W 25
0721081006 115N 242W 25
0721081012 115N 261W 25
0721081018 117N 278W 25
0721081100 118N 291W 25
0721081106 120N 310W 25
0721081112 123N 332W 25
0721081118 127N 353W 25
0721081200 133N 374W 25
0721081206 138N 393W 25
0721081212 142N 412W 30
0721081218 144N 430W 30
0721081300 145N 448W 30
0721081306 149N 467W 30
0721081312 152N 487W 30
0721081318 153N 508W 30
0721081400 154N 527W 30
0721081406 156N 547W 35
0721081412 158N 573W 40
0721081418 162N 597W 40
0721081500 165N 617W 35
0721081506 167N 637W 35
0721081512 170N 653W 35
0721081518 170N 667W 30
0721081600 171N 681W 30
0721081606 173N 695W 30
0721081612 176N 708W 30
0721081618 178N 718W 30
0721081700 180N 730W 30
0721081000 115N 224W 25
0721081006 115N 242W 25
0721081012 115N 261W 25
0721081018 117N 278W 25
0721081100 118N 291W 25
0721081106 120N 310W 25
0721081112 123N 332W 25
0721081118 127N 353W 25
0721081200 133N 374W 25
0721081206 138N 393W 25
0721081212 142N 412W 30
0721081218 144N 430W 30
0721081300 145N 448W 30
0721081306 149N 467W 30
0721081312 152N 487W 30
0721081318 153N 508W 30
0721081400 154N 527W 30
0721081406 156N 547W 35
0721081412 158N 573W 40
0721081418 162N 597W 40
0721081500 165N 617W 35
0721081506 167N 637W 35
0721081512 170N 653W 35
0721081518 170N 667W 30
0721081600 171N 681W 30
0721081606 173N 695W 30
0721081612 176N 708W 30
0721081618 178N 718W 30
0721081700 180N 730W 30
0821081400 375N 646W 15
0821081406 370N 643W 15
0821081412 366N 640W 20
0821081418 362N 637W 25
0821081500 358N 634W 25
0821081506 354N 631W 25
0821081512 348N 628W 25
0821081518 341N 627W 25
0821081600 334N 627W 25
0821081606 325N 627W 30
0821081612 315N 627W 30
0821081618 311N 629W 35
0821081700 308N 631W 40
0821081406 370N 643W 15
0821081412 366N 640W 20
0821081418 362N 637W 25
0821081500 358N 634W 25
0821081506 354N 631W 25
0821081512 348N 628W 25
0821081518 341N 627W 25
0821081600 334N 627W 25
0821081606 325N 627W 30
0821081612 315N 627W 30
0821081618 311N 629W 35
0821081700 308N 631W 40