Western Pacific: 3 systems being monitored:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 96W//Eastern Pacific: Hurricane 08E(HILDA) intensifying, 01/06utc updates

INVEST 96W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 010334UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 010037UTC ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INVEST 96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHWEST.

INVEST 98W.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1000 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 010331UTC AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENING INVEST 98W. INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE INVEST 98W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

INVEST 95W.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 215 KM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 010337Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. INVEST 95W IS LOCATED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG (40-50 KTS) SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONG (30-40 KTS), SST VALUES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE AT 23C AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INTO HOKKAIDO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 08E(HILDA). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 01/04UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 24H.

08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.

TD 09W. WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 01/04UTC.

09E. GUIDANCE.

INVEST 91E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 31/1330UTC.AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9N 105.2W, APPROXIMATELY 2620 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311200UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

INVEST 91E. GUIDANCE.

01/00UTC.

01/00UTC.