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Western Pacific: 16W gradually approaching the Marianas next 72h//Eastern Pacific:12E(LINDA)now a Major Hurricane/Atlantic:06L(FRED) & 07L monitored,14/03utc updates



14/00UTC.
14/00UTC.


JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TD 16W. WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) THROUGH 72H THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120H AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TD 16W SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS AS INDICATED IN THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER 72H2 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 ANTICIPATED BY 120H.
TD 16W. WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) THROUGH 72H THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120H AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TD 16W SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS AS INDICATED IN THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER 72H2 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 ANTICIPATED BY 120H.
1621080700  77N1670W  15
1621080706  78N1678W  20
1621080712  80N1684W  20
1621080718  88N1688W  25
1621080800  95N1694W  25
1621080806  99N1705W  20
1621080812 100N1719W  20
1621080818 105N1730W  20
1621080900 110N1740W  20
1621080906 115N1751W  20
1621080912 117N1764W  20
1621080918 120N1789W  20
1621081000 121N1797W  20
1621081006 122N1795E  20
1621081012 122N1787E  25
1621081018 122N1780E  30
1621081100 123N1772E  30
1621081106 124N1766E  30
1621081112 121N1759E  30
1621081118 121N1750E  30
1621081200 121N1740E  25
1621081206 128N1727E  25
1621081212 126N1713E  30
1621081218 126N1699E  30
1621081300 127N1686E  35
1621081306 128N1674E  35
1621081312 128N1662E  35
1621081318 126N1647E  30
1621081400 125N1632E  30
NNNN
 

Western Pacific: 16W gradually approaching the Marianas next 72h//Eastern Pacific:12E(LINDA)now a Major Hurricane/Atlantic:06L(FRED) & 07L monitored,14/03utc updates


TD 16W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW, DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE HINDERING SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.
TD 16W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW, DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE HINDERING SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.

 

TD 16W.MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (MEDIUM OVERALL) IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH A SPREAD OF 305KM AT 72H NEAR GUAM. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC), THERE IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THIS BROAD LLC, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H BUT DIVERGES AFTER 48H WITH HWRF INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 AT 120H AND THE JTWC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 120H. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THIS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
TD 16W.MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (MEDIUM OVERALL) IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH A SPREAD OF 305KM AT 72H NEAR GUAM. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC), THERE IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THIS BROAD LLC, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H BUT DIVERGES AFTER 48H WITH HWRF INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 AT 120H AND THE JTWC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS/CAT 1 AT 120H. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THIS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 14/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 105KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 110KNOTS/CAT 3 AT 14/12UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 14/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 105KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 110KNOTS/CAT 3 AT 14/12UTC.
1221080818 107N 944W  20
1221080900 111N 956W  25
1221080906 115N 968W  25
1221080912 119N 981W  30
1221080918 123N 991W  30
1221081000 126N 999W  30
1221081006 130N1007W  30
1221081012 135N1016W  30
1221081018 141N1023W  40
1221081100 142N1031W  45
1221081106 141N1043W  45
1221081112 138N1053W  50
1221081118 137N1058W  60
1221081200 138N1063W  60
1221081206 142N1067W  60
1221081212 146N1074W  65
1221081218 150N1082W  65
1221081300 156N1091W  75
1221081306 161N1101W  80
1221081312 166N1112W  90
1221081318 172N1123W 100
1221081400 177N1133W 105
NNNN

HU 12E(LINDA). 14/0050UTC. GOES-17.
HU 12E(LINDA). 14/0050UTC. GOES-17.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.
HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

14/12UTC.
14/12UTC.


ATLANTIC. TD 06L(FRED). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC.
ATLANTIC. TD 06L(FRED). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC.
0621080718 112N 493W  25
0621080800 113N 503W  25
0621080806 115N 514W  25
0621080812 119N 528W  25
0621080818 122N 540W  25
0621080900 126N 552W  25
0621080906 130N 564W  25
0621080912 134N 576W  25
0621080918 139N 587W  30
0621081000 146N 601W  30
0621081006 153N 615W  30
0621081012 160N 631W  30
0621081018 167N 646W  30
0621081100 174N 661W  35
0621081106 177N 676W  35
0621081112 180N 691W  40
0621081118 185N 704W  35
0621081200 192N 716W  30
0621081206 200N 729W  30
0621081212 207N 740W  30
0621081218 209N 746W  30
0621081300 214N 752W  30
0621081306 218N 762W  30
0621081312 221N 777W  30
0621081318 221N 791W  30
0621081400 225N 802W  30
 

TD 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.
TD 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.

TD 07L. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC.
TD 07L. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC.
0721080918 115N 206W  25
0721081000 115N 224W  25
0721081006 115N 242W  25
0721081012 115N 261W  25
0721081018 117N 278W  25
0721081100 118N 291W  25
0721081106 120N 310W  25
0721081112 123N 332W  25
0721081118 127N 353W  25
0721081200 133N 374W  25
0721081206 138N 393W  25
0721081212 142N 412W  30
0721081218 144N 430W  30
0721081300 145N 448W  30
0721081306 149N 467W  30
0721081312 152N 487W  30
0721081318 153N 508W  30
0721081400 154N 527W  30
 

TD 07L. GUIDANCE.
TD 07L. GUIDANCE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, August 14th 2021 à 08:00
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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