Western Pacific: 16W forecast to cross Guam shortly after 24h and intensify to Typhoon threshold in 4 days//Eastern Pacific: Hurricane12E(LINDA): annular features//Atlantic: 06L,07L,08L, 16/03utc updates

16/00UTC.

TD 16W. WARNING 23 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) THROUGH 48H THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120H AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TD 16W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY BY 48h AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE. AFTER 48H, TD 16W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 120H.

TD 16W. WARNING 23. KML.

TD 16W.SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TD 16W HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, MSI SHOWS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT. A 152039UTC SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK WITH A BROAD LLC POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. A 152135UTC ASCAT-A BULLSEYE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH EXTENSIVE 0-10 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 20-25 KNOT EASTERLIES DISPLACED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20- TO 30- KNOT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES DIVERGING OVER THE SYSTEM INTO A BROAD TUTT CELL POSITIONED NEAR 23N 143E. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE, HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM CORE.

TD 16W. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SPREAD OF 90KM AT 24H. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC), THERE IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THIS BROAD LLC, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND CPA TIMING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD GUAM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36H WITH A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. AFTER 36H, INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS, WHICH PEAKS AT 80 KNOTS/CAT 1.

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. HU 12E(LINDA). WARNING 24 ISSUED AT 16/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT 95KNOTS/CAT 2. FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 65KNOTS BY 19/00UTC.

HU 12E(LINDA). 16/0250UTC. ANNULAR CLOUD PATTERN.

HU 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

16/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. TS 06L(FRED). WARNING 26 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 45KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 50KNOTS WITHIN 24H.

TS 06L(FRED). GUIDANCE.

TD 07L(GRACE). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC.

TD 07L(GRACE). GUIDANCE.

TD 08L. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC.

TD 08L. GUIDANCE.

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 16W.