Western Pacific: 13W(LUPIT) and 14W(MIRINAE) moving to higher latitudes// 11E(KEVIN) forecast to reach Hurricane/Cat1 by 36h, 08/03utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 13W AND 14W.

TS 13W(LUPIT). WARNING 26 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS LUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN SHORTLY. AFTER 24H, IT WILL TRACK MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THEN CROSS NORTHERN HONSHU JUST SOUTH OF MISAWA AND EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN AFTER 24H. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW INTENSITY TO SUSTAIN AT 55KNOTS THROUGH 12H IN THE RELATIVELY WARM SOJ. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS, LAND INTERACTION, AND COOLING SSTS (24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KNOTS AT 48H. BY 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FULLY TRANSFORM INTO A 45-KNOT COLD CORE LOW BY 48H.

TS 13W(LUPIT). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION OFFSET OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR AND A 082207UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOWEST LOCAL PRESSURE OF 983MB, A 53KNOTS OBSERVATION IN IZUMO, JAPAN AND A 082355UTC METOP-A ASCAT PASS.

TS 13W(LUPIT). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 220KM BY 48H. INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DECAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TS MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, THEN TURN EASTWARD AFTER 12H. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS) AND COOLING SSTS (24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION AND FULLY TRANSFORM INTO A COLD CORE LOW BY 36H.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 082329UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 240KM BY 36H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DECAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

INVEST 92W. GUIDANCE. THIS SUSPECT AREA IS NOT ON THE JTWC MAP AT THE MOMENT BUT WE ARE KEEPING TABS ON IT.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 11E(KEVIN). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 09/04UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 36H.

TS 11E(KEVIN). GUIDANCE.

TS 11E(KEVIN).

INVEST 93E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 08/17UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 95.2W TO 12.9N 101.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 555 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND BROAD TURNING AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 082257UTC SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR LLC. ANALYSES INDICATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

INVEST 93E. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 93E WILL CONSOLDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD.

INVEST 93E.

09/00UTC.

TS 13W AND TS 14W. WARNINGS 26 AND 20. KML.

09/00UTC.