JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11W. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED ON 09W AT 26/09UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 11W AND ON 09W(OVER-LAND).
2021 JULY 27 0630UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
REMNANTS OF #09W #INFA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC July 27, 2021:
Location: 31.4°N 119.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: /
Minimum Central Pressure: / mb
OVER-LAND
------------------------------------------
STS #11W #NEPARTAK
WARNING 15/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 27, 2021:
Location: 34.9°N 142.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: /
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
SUBTROPICAL
LOCATED AT 27/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 260 KM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
REMNANTS OF #09W #INFA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC July 27, 2021:
Location: 31.4°N 119.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: /
Minimum Central Pressure: / mb
OVER-LAND
------------------------------------------
STS #11W #NEPARTAK
WARNING 15/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC July 27, 2021:
Location: 34.9°N 142.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: /
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
SUBTROPICAL
LOCATED AT 27/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 260 KM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
REMNANTS OF TD 09W(IN-FA). GUIDANCE.
PEAK INTENSITY FOR 09W(IN-FA) WAS 95KNOTS/CAT 2.
0921071506 173N1350E 15
0921071512 173N1349E 15
0921071518 174N1348E 20
0921071600 180N1347E 20
0921071606 187N1346E 20
0921071612 193N1344E 25
0921071618 199N1341E 25
0921071700 205N1337E 30
0921071706 211N1332E 30
0921071712 215N1328E 30
0921071718 219N1326E 30
0921071800 224N1325E 35
0921071806 227N1324E 35
0921071812 231N1323E 40
0921071818 235N1322E 45
0921071900 238N1320E 50
0921071906 239N1318E 50
0921071912 241N1315E 55
0921071918 242N1312E 55
0921072000 244N1308E 60
0921072006 246N1297E 65
0921072012 244N1288E 75
0921072018 241N1282E 85
0921072100 241N1279E 95
0921072106 241N1272E 95
0921072112 239N1266E 95
0921072118 236N1262E 90
0921072200 235N1261E 90
0921072206 235N1260E 85
0921072212 236N1259E 85
0921072218 238N1257E 80
0921072300 242N1255E 75
0921072306 245N1252E 75
0921072312 248N1251E 60
0921072318 254N1249E 65
0921072400 264N1247E 65
0921072406 273N1243E 65
0921072412 280N1240E 65
0921072418 287N1237E 65
0921072500 297N1229E 60
0921072506 300N1224E 55
0921072512 302N1220E 55
0921072518 305N1216E 45
0921072600 306N1211E 40
0921072606 309N1209E 35
0921072612 310N1215E 35
0921072618 313N1199E 30
0921072706 313N1190E 30
NNNN
0921071506 173N1350E 15
0921071512 173N1349E 15
0921071518 174N1348E 20
0921071600 180N1347E 20
0921071606 187N1346E 20
0921071612 193N1344E 25
0921071618 199N1341E 25
0921071700 205N1337E 30
0921071706 211N1332E 30
0921071712 215N1328E 30
0921071718 219N1326E 30
0921071800 224N1325E 35
0921071806 227N1324E 35
0921071812 231N1323E 40
0921071818 235N1322E 45
0921071900 238N1320E 50
0921071906 239N1318E 50
0921071912 241N1315E 55
0921071918 242N1312E 55
0921072000 244N1308E 60
0921072006 246N1297E 65
0921072012 244N1288E 75
0921072018 241N1282E 85
0921072100 241N1279E 95
0921072106 241N1272E 95
0921072112 239N1266E 95
0921072118 236N1262E 90
0921072200 235N1261E 90
0921072206 235N1260E 85
0921072212 236N1259E 85
0921072218 238N1257E 80
0921072300 242N1255E 75
0921072306 245N1252E 75
0921072312 248N1251E 60
0921072318 254N1249E 65
0921072400 264N1247E 65
0921072406 273N1243E 65
0921072412 280N1240E 65
0921072418 287N1237E 65
0921072500 297N1229E 60
0921072506 300N1224E 55
0921072512 302N1220E 55
0921072518 305N1216E 45
0921072600 306N1211E 40
0921072606 309N1209E 35
0921072612 310N1215E 35
0921072618 313N1199E 30
0921072706 313N1190E 30
NNNN
STS 11W(NEPARTAK). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 27/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24H AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS OVER THE JAPAN ALPS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL STORM TRACKS OVERLAND. AFTER 24H, 11W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AS 11W REEMERGES OVER THE EAST SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72H.
11W(NEPARTAK).SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: 11W (NEPARTAK) REMAINS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NEPARTAK IS CENTERED BENEATH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING AROUND THE SYSTEM. AFTER AN UNEXPECTED, SHORT-LIVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, 11W HAS ACCELERATED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALONG WITH HOURLY RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD, A 262323Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
11(NEPARTAK).MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 261200Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY PRODUCT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
27/00UTC.
27/00UTC.
