Very destructive CAT 4 04S(CHIDO) hit MAYOTTE hard now bearing down on MOZAMBIQUE// 1415utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 04S(CHIDO).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CHIDO) WITH AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE FROM 0900Z TO 1100Z WITH A SYMMETRICAL EYE AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE APPEARANCE AS OF 1200Z HAS SLIGHTLY WORSENED THOUGH, WITH A DIMPLE EYE NOW AND A MORE RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS SEEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE EYE IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. IT IS HEDGED HIGHER DUE TO THE COMPACT SIZE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERESTIMATION IN INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A 141045Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED IMAGE DEPICTED A MAX OF 115 KTS TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, ABOUT 35 NM SOUTH OF PEMBA BAY, IS EXPECTED IN AROUND 18 HOURS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MALAWI AS IT DISSIPATES. REGARDING INTENSITY, 04S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE VORTEX CAUSING RAPID WEAKENING. WEAKENING BELOW 35 KTS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF 04S WITH A 39 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE MESOSCALE MODELS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE ALSO SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY CONSTANT DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

Platform: RCM-3 Acquisition Date: 2024-12-13 15:06:35 UTC Storm Name: SH042025 / CHIDO Storm ID: SH04 Storm Center Longitude: 48.191 Storm Center Latitude: -11.659 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 30.585 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 132.39 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 131.79 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 127.57 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 126.97 RMax (nmi): 6.00 - 12.00

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140848Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED WIND FIELD. FURTHERMORE, A 141211Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE WEAK NATURE OF 96W WITH NO EVIDENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO.