Météo974
TY FAXAI (14W)
Location: 35.3°N 139.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts : 110kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE BUT STILL PACKED DEEP CONVECTION
AND A 15NM CLOUD-FILLED OBLONG EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INCREASING (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AFTER TAU 06. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 13.5°N 143.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.3E, APPROXIMATELY
23 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 072337Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 072338Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005.5MB WITH A 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.6MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE MOST
RECENT SOUNDING FROM GUAM SHOWS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER GUAM WITH A
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 31.1°N 123.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICTY FAXAI (14W)
Location: 35.3°N 139.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts : 110kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE BUT STILL PACKED DEEP CONVECTION
AND A 15NM CLOUD-FILLED OBLONG EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INCREASING (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AFTER TAU 06. BY TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 13.5°N 143.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.3E, APPROXIMATELY
23 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 072337Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 072338Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005.5MB WITH A 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.6MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE MOST
RECENT SOUNDING FROM GUAM SHOWS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER GUAM WITH A
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 31.1°N 123.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
