JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 92B.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 92B. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 17/2030UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171614Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DISTINCT LLCC. A 171630Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
9221111700 101N 873E 15
9221111706 102N 860E 20
9221111712 104N 848E 20
9221111718 106N 835E 25
NNNN
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA.
GFS AT +24H.
17/2130UTC.
