The Pacific remains active, 08/03utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13W AND 14W. WARNING 12/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 15W AT 07/09UTC. INVEST 91W WAS UP-GRADED TO HIGH AT 07/17UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 13W,14W AND 15W.

TS 13W(LUPIT). WARNING 22 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YELLOW SEA. THE INTERACTION OF LUPIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND MUCH OF THE STORM'S EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LUPIT OVER SOUTH KOREA AND THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT LUPIT WILL INTERACT IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER WITH THIS JET STREAK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 36 HOURS. THE INTRODUCTION OF BAROCLINIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LUPIT TO INTENSIFY AND GROW IN SIZE, DESPITE MOVING OVER THE LANDMASS OF WESTERN JAPAN. A LARGE, EXPANDING WIND FIELD WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST AS LUPIT TRACKS OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA OF JAPAN DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS, A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN HONSHU WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST, WITH TRANSITION COMPLETING BY 72 HOURS EAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT LUPIT'S BROAD STRUCTURE AND LAND INTERACTION WITH JAPAN WILL PREVENT A TIGHT INNER CONVECTIVE CORE FROM ORGANIZING. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE, AND EDGED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY JUST A TOUCH.

TS 13W(LUPIT). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND JMA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS. CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EASTERN SIDE, BUT HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WIND FIELD IS QUITE BROAD, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS LOCATED WITHIN THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND 185-280 KM SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT KASARI, JAPAN, MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 50 KNOTS AT 072340UTC ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS).

TS 13W(LUPIT). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, GENERALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MIRINAE OFFSHORE OF HONSHU, THOUGH TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HONSHU AND NEARBY ISLANDS. WHILE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS BEING ANALYZED, CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A MORE ROBUST INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS INDICATIVE OF AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS MIRINAE CONTINUES TRACKING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. THE JTWC FORECAST EXPECTS A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12-24 HOURS, THE STORM SHOULD TRACK OVER COOLER SST AND CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND POLAR FRONT, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS MIRINAE INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR FRONT, AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS. THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BY THAT TIME.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND JMA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH A STRONG PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE, SPIRALING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE DISTINCT BANDING HAS HAD THE APPEARANCE OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DRY AIR IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, ERODING SOME OF THE CORE CONVECTION ON THAT SIDE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITATION AT THE MOMENT. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) HAS RESUMED ITS EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER TAKING A NORTHWARD JOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO 071800UTC. THE CENTER PASSED CLOSE TO HACHIJOJIMA ISLAND, WHERE THE PRESSURE FELL TO 981MB AT 071900UTC. A SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 41 KNOTS WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 58 KNOTS WAS OBSERVED AT MIYAKE-TSUBOTA AT 072143UTC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF MIRINAE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS AND POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE VORTEX STRUCTURE IN THE CURRENT HWRF AND COAMPS-TC FORECASTS.

INVEST 91W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 07/17UTC.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 147.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 770 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 071130UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ILL-DEFINED LLC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

INVEST 91W. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND REMAIN NEAR CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLC WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA.

TS 15W(NIDA) WARNING 12/FINAL ISSUED AT 07/09UTC.

EX TS 15W(NIDA). GUIDANCE.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 11E(KEVIN). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 08/04UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 75KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 48H.

TS 11E(KEVIN). GUIDANCE.

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