TY 27W(NYATOH): deep convection being blown away// TC 05B(JAWAD) expected to intensify a bit next 24hours, 03/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 27W AND 05B. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S(TERATAI).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 27W IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48H DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOW THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, TY 27W WILL STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031223Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DIMINISHED CORE CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/CAT 3 IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PGTW, KNES AND RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 24H THEN DIVERGES WITH THE SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING A SHARP EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE AND OTHERS INDICATING DISSIPATION NEAR 30N. THE BULK OF THE ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH 24H WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS. BY 36H, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. AS TC 05B RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48H, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BETWEEN 72H AND 96H, PERHAPS SOONER. THE REMNANTS SHOULD TRACK INTO BANGLADESH BUT COULD ALSO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 031101Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TC 05B HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC AND THE NORTHWESTWARD TILT IN THE VORTEX. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED ROBUST WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATING A TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT GROUPING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MEDIUM.

03/1620UTC.